Last Updated Odds to Win the Kentucky Derby

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Betting for the 2023 Kentucky Derby is underway. Let’s take a final updated look before Saturday’s Run for the Roses. Keep reading for current Kentucky Derby odds, each horses morning line, and analysis.

Check updated Kentucky Derby betting lines, each horses morning line, and analysis.  

Last Updated Odds to Win the Kentucky Derby | MyBookie Horse Racing Betting Preview

149th Kentucky Derby | Grade I stakes race
When: Saturday, May 6, 2023
Where: Churchill Downs, Louisville, KY
Distance & Surface: 1 ¼ miles on dirt

Practical Move and Lord Miles scratch

Before analyzing the latest odds, on Thursday night, Tim Yakteen scratched one of the favorites, Practical Move, due to a spiking fever. Practical Move’s defection opens the door for Cyclone Mischief to run.

Saffie Joseph Jr. received a suspension after two of his horses died at the racetrack in the last couple of weeks. Joseph Jr. won’t run Lord Miles, which means Mandarin Hero draws into the event.

On Friday, Two Phil’s and Reincarnate are the wise guy picks

So far, the wise guy choices are Two Phil’s and Reincarnate. Reincarnate offered a +5000 morning line. Today, the horse is down to +1600.

It takes a lot of money to move a line that much. Two Phil’s is down to +1000 from +1200. The move isn’t as significant, but it’s a sign horseplayers are taking Two Phil’s Jack Ruby Steaks win seriously.

Derma Sotogake’s odds will shrink on Saturday

Pros and casual horseplayers will see the +1300 on Derma Sotogake and pounce. Derma could be a freak. The Japanese trained runner gets speed from sire Mind Your Biscuits and grandsire on the broodmare side Neo Universe.

Derma can chill a couple of lengths behind likely front runners Kingsbarns, Verifying, and Jace’s Road, and then take over around the final turn. Horseplayers will notice the possibility and pound Derma Sotogake to below +1000 odds.

Forte won’t go off the favorite, Tapit Trice or Angel of Empire will

Early action suggests Forte leaves the starting gate the second or possibly even third choice. Although the public has yet to lay down their money, Forte’s last two works leading up to the Derby weren’t just bad, they were horrendous.

The Todd Pletcher trained runner may have peaked in the Florida Derby. Tapit Trice, another Pletcher runner, is by far the better choice if you take Forte’s works into consideration.

Angel of Empire is already at +600 from a +800 morning line. Empire offered +1400 in the future books last week. So the trend suggests Angel of Empire could end up the chalk.  

Kentucky Derby Long Shots Picks | Bet Kentucky Derby Today
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2023 Kentucky Derby Field: Post Positions, Betting Odds, Jockeys, Trainers

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Kentucky Derby preps start in earnest this weekend when three-year-olds throw down in the Grade 3 Southwest at Oaklawn Park and the Grade 2 San Vicente at Santa Anita. As one might expect, Derby King Bob Baffert has a strong hand in both races. But just because Bob should win both preps, it doesn’t mean he’ll be in charge come Derby Day. Check out five bold predictions for the 2023 Kentucky Derby so you can plan ahead your bets and place them on the Kentucky Derby Odds.

Horse Racing Odds: Bold Betting Predictions for the 2023 Kentucky Derby

143rd Kentucky Derby

When: Saturday, May 6 at 9:00 pm ET
Where: Churchill Downs, Louisville, KY

At least four horses formerly trained by Bob Baffert will run the Derby

Baffert trained Arabian Knight is the most hyped three-year-old to land on the Derby Trail since, Triple Crown winner American Pharoah eight years ago.

Ah, but Baffert is suspended from running horses at Churchill Downs. The racetrack said that all horses running under suspended trainers must transfer to different barns by Feb. 28.

So, although Baffert will prep Arabian Knight, and Cave Rock, and Faustin to run for the roses, there’s a good chance those horses will be formerly trained by Bob Baffert contenders.

Todd Pletcher trained Forte will go off the morning line chalk

Forte has won 3 straight Grade 1 events: the Hopeful at Saratoga last September, the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland last October, and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, also at Keeneland, this past November.

Also, not only does Pletcher train, but Violence, a son of Medaglia D’Oro, sired and the broodmare is Queen Caroline, who calls Blame her dad.

Forte is bred to be a champion. Almost as important? Forte is likely to prep at Gulfstream Park. Brad Cox will keep his horses in Kentucky and Arkansas, and Baffert will prep on the west coast at Santa Anita and at Oaklawn Park in Arkansas, which means Forte should have the Florida preps all to himself. All of it adds up to Forte showing up to Louisville the morning line chalk.

Trainer Brad Cox will saddle at least three runners

Undefeated Victory Formation, the Smarty Jones winner, should have no trouble entering the Derby starting gate. The horse is 3-0 in 3 races and rates a serious Derby contender.

Instant Coffee, which won the Grade 3 Lecomte in the last, is a close to for sure Cox Derby runner and so is Gun Runner Stakes winner Jace’s Road.

Those three should enter the Derby starting gate. Brad has a plethora of three-year-olds this season. So, if a fourth joins the party, don’t be surprised.

At least one filly will run for the roses

At least one top filly will forego the Oaks and run in this year’s Derby. Tom Amoss, who is a risk taking trainer, saddles the top rated three-year-old filly in the nation, Hoosier Philly.

The Into Mischief sired runner comes from Tapit broodmare Tapella. No doubt, the undefeated miss has the talent to win the Derby.

If Amoss opts for the Oaks, Mark Casse will run BC Juvenile Fillies winner Wonder Wheel, or Todd Pletcher might go for the roses with last-out maiden Prank.

The favorite when the gates open will win the Kentucky Derby

For years, the favorite struggled to win the roses. Then in 2014, when chalk California Chrome won the Derby, the favorite couldn’t lose.

Chalk wore the roses in 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2018. Since 2019, massive underdogs have won the Derby, including Rich Strike last year.

It’s time for the favorite to get back into the winner’s circle. Forte, Arabian Knight, Instant Coffee, it doesn’t necessarily matter. The bold prediction is the equine which breaks from the gate the chalk wins the Run for the Roses.

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Because the Kentucky Oaks happens on Friday and the Kentucky Derby happens on Saturday, this week’s top stakes races occur at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Check out more info on the Oaks and Derby along with four other terrific races happening under the Twin Spires. 

Also, check out top plays and Horse Racing Odds for the Top Stakes Races of the Week from Friday, May. 6th to Saturday, May. 7th. You can also visit our Online Racebook to place your bets on active racetracks.

Horse Racing Odds & Picks May 2nd Edition

Churchill Downs | Friday, May 6

Grade 2 Alysheba Stakes – 1 1/6 miles dirt – 4 year olds & up

The five horses confirmed for the Grade 2 Alysheba all have a shot to take the win. Brad Cox trained Fulsome figures to go off the odds-on favorite. Happy Saver, from the Todd Pletcher barn, could upset Fulsome. Weyburn and Title Ready are longshots with a chance. But the Bill Mott trained Olympiad is a serious player. 

Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks – 1 1/8 miles dirt – 3 year old fillies

Pletcher trained Nest is the morning line chalk. There are no knocks. So if you like, then accept the low odds. The other favorites include Echo Zulu and Kathleen O. Secret Oath has a shot and so does Nostalgic. The best longshots are Desert Dawn and Shahama. One of those fillies could surprise at big odds.

Churchill Downs | Saturday, May 7

Grade 1 Derby City Distaff Stakes – 7 furlongs dirt – 4 year old fillies & mares

Four runners are confirmed. Of the four, Bell’s The One or Obligatory will go off the favorite. Center Aisle and Four Graces are talented enough to win this race. The Derby City Distaff will attract more runners than the current four. So it might be a good idea to wait until the rest of the field draws into the event before deciding on who you believe will win. 

Grade 1 Churchill Downs Stakes – 7 furlongs dirt – 4 year olds & up

Three of the top sprinters in the U.S. will step into the starting gate for the Churchill Downs Stakes. Jackie’s Warrior will go off the favorite. But Jackie must deal with 2021 Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner Aloha West. Then there’s Prevalence, the Godolphin runner trained by Brendan Walsh that won the Grade 3 Commonwealth in his last. Anyone of the three can step into the winner’s circle. Mind Control and Long Range Toddy are two others that horseplayers can’t take lightly. 

Grade 2 Pat Day Mile – 1 mile dirt – 3 year olds

Jack Cristopher, who would have been one of the favorites to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile if he had run, returns to the track on Saturday in the Pat Day Mile. Last fall, Cristopher was all the rage. The Chad Brown runner will go off the chalk. Pappacap, Newgrange, Doppleganger, and Trafalgar will also attract action. 

Grade 1 Kentucky Derby – 1 ¼ miles dirt – 3 year olds 

John Battaglia made Zandon the 3-to-1 morning line chalk. Epicenter, the Louisiana Derby winner, is second-choice while Messier, the second-place finisher in the Santa Anita Derby, is the third-choice. Todd Pletcher’s top runner, Mo Donegal, offers 10-to-1 odds. Taiba, who won the Santa Anita Derby over Messier, is 12-to-1 and Arkansas Derby winner Cyberknife is 16-to-1. If you love backing longshots, the Kentucky Derby is the race for you. 

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The 2021 Kentucky Derby is almost here. After weeks of preps, discussions, and training sessions, 20 of the best three-year-olds on the planet are ready to rock and roll under the Twin Spires at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Check out the latest Kentucky Derby news as we head into Tuesday’s draw. Also, check out top plays and Horse Racing Odds from Kentucky Derby for Saturday, May 1. You can also visit our Online Racebook to place your bets on active racetracks. 

Essential Quality and Rock Your World Favored to Win the 2021 Kentucky Derby

2021 Kentucky Derby

When: Saturday, May 1, 2021
Where: Churchill Downs, Louisville, KY

Early Week Kentucky Derby Odds

Essential Quality and Rock Your World should hold favoritism until they break from the gate

The two final pre-Derby future favorites should remain the favorites as they break from the gate on Saturday. Both Essential Quality and Rock Your World have gotten all the attention heading into the first Saturday in May.

Godolphin owned and Brad Cox trained Essential Quality is undefeated after five starts. He won the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile as a two-year-old. As a three-year-old, he won both Kentucky Derby preps, the Blue Grass Stakes and the Grade 3 Southwest.

Sired by Tapit, Essential Quality can run for as long as he must. He may have to improve to win the Derby on Saturday, but, no doubt, most horseplayers will believe he does.

John Sadler put the saddle on Rock Your World. The Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby winner must win the Kentucky Derby after just three races. What will impress many horseplayers about Rock Your World is how he transferred seamlessly from turf to dirt.

Horses that do that like Rock’s sire, Candy Ride, are often top-notch runners. Expect Rock Your World and Essential Quality to go off first and second choice.

If you like either, consider making your wager as soon as possible. If there’s a run on both horses, a possibility, Quality will offer much less than +290 and Rock will offer much less than +500.

Todd Pletcher will saddle four in the Run for the Roses

The great Todd Pletcher, one of the best trainers in the world for the past 20 years, has four chances to win Saturday’s Derby. Among the four choices, Known Agenda looks like the top play.

The Florida Derby winner has a ton of upside. Agenda has won two straight races at 1 1/8 miles. The Curlin sired colt should flawlessly transition from 1 1/8 miles to 1 ¼ miles.

Pletcher’s other runners are Dynamic One, Sainthood, and Wood Memorial winner Bourbonic. Among those three, Dynamic One has a chance to hit the board. The other two are confirmed longshots. 

Early money driving Highly Motivated to below +1000

Chad Brown will saddle a single runner in this year’s Kentucky Derby. His runner, Highly Motivated, could go off third choice.

The Into Mischief sired equine almost held off Essential Quality in the Grade 2 Blue Grass in his last. The Godolphin runner beat Motivated by a neck. 

Highly Motivated should be in the top-flight. He will definitely get the 1 ¼ mile Derby distance. Right now, the Brown runner is the wise guy choice. His odds have fallen to below +1000.

With Caddo River out, Rock Your World may set the pace

Rock Your World, the second choice on MyBookie, may end up setting the pace. The John Sadler trained runner led gate-to-wire to win the Santa Anita Derby.

He could go gate-to-wire on Saturday because Brad Cox has decided not to run Caddo River. There’s a lot to hash out before making picks. Stay tuned the rest of this week for more Kentucky Derby information. 

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Because of the coronavirus pandemic, this year’s Derby takes place on September 5. No worries! On May 2, Churchill Downs will run the Kentucky Virtual Derby. Did you ever wonder who would win a race among Secretariat, American Pharoah, Citation, and Seattle Slew? Check out a preview, Kentucky Virtual Derby odds, and free picks for the 2020 Kentucky Virtual Derby!

2020 Kentucky Virtual Derby

When: Saturday, May 2
Where: Internet

2020 Kentucky Virtual Derby Odds to Win

At +100, is Secretariat an overlay or underlay?

Most believe that since it’s a digital race anything can happen. But that shouldn’t be the case. Horseplayers all over the world know that the greatest American thoroughbred to ever run is Secretariat. So, unless some random thing happens during the race Secretariat should win 90 of 100 times they run a Virtual Derby.

Favorites in $2,500 claimers at Fonner Park get bet down to below even money, which means Secretariat at even money in any field presents an overlay opportunity.

Can American Pharoah beat Secretariat?

Yes. The Baffert trainee might be the only horse in the race that can. American Pharoah produced a 120 Beyer figure when he won the 2015 Breeders’ Cup Classic. The figure could have been much higher, maybe up to 130.

Secretariat would have scored a 139 when he won the Belmont Stakes. But the Test of Champions is at 1 ½ miles. The Derby is at 1 ¼ miles. Does that mean AP beats Big Red in a stretch duel? Your call.

Which horse among Affirmed, Citation, and Seattle Slew has the best chance of upsetting the favorites?

During his career, Citation ran almost every two weeks. The Iron Horse had a 32-10-2 record from 45 races. On their Top 100 Horses Races of the 20^th Century, Bloodhorse Magazine ranked Citation fourth behind Man O’War, Secretariat and Kelso. If the Virtual Derby is legit, Citation should finish no worse than third on Saturday.

Who is the best +1200 choice to win the 2020 Kentucky Virtual Derby?

Fleet dominated his competition. We can make a case for either War Admiral or Whirlaway. But Justify lucked into his Triple Crown. That was a bad Belmont field latest Crown winner beat in 2018.

Which underdog at +2500 odds or higher can win the Virtual Run for the Roses?

Save your money. We’re talking the greatest upset in simulated sports history if Omaha, Assault, Gallant Fox, or Sir Barton beats Secretariat, American Pharoah, Citation, Seattle Slew, Affirmed, and Count Fleet.

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The 145th Kentucky Derby takes place on Saturday, May 4. Already, horseplayers are looking at past performances, circling the names of potential key horses, and figuring out their Derby wagers. Check out our Kentucky Derby odds and a preview of the Run for the Roses!

2019 Kentucky Derby Betting Odds, TV Schedule, Entry List & Preview

When: Saturday, May 4 at 6:50pm ET
Where: Churchill Downs Racetrack
TV: NBC
Live Stream: NBCsports.com

2019 Kentucky Derby Odds

Are the west coast horses that much better than the other Kentucky Derby entrants?

Based on the early betting, the biggest question is whether the horses that train in California: Roadster, Omaha Beach, Game Winner, and Improbable, are better than the other likely entrants. The California horses are attracting early betting dollars. In particular, horseplayers have gravitated towards Roadster and Omaha Beach.

Roadster won the Santa Anita Derby while Omaha Beach won the Rebel Stakes over Game Winner and the Arkansas Derby over Improbable. If the west coast horses aren’t better, the Derby winner will pay big because the only horses offering odds less than +1000 are horses that train in California.

Which horse among Vekoma, Tacitus, and Maximum Security has the best chance of winning the roses?

All three have good to great chances of winning the Roses. It depends on how the race shapes up. Vekoma dominated the Blue Grass Stakes, Maximum Security dominated in the Florida Derby while Tacitus beat a tough horse in Tax to win the Wood Memorial. If the pace is fast, Vekoma and Maximum Security could be in some trouble. If the pace is slow, Tacitus could be in some trouble.

A case can be made for any of the three. If there is one that you’re fond of more than the other, don’t let anybody talk you off it.

What +2000 to +2500 horse has the best shot to win the Kentucky Derby?

The key race for the +2000 to +2500 horse could be the Louisiana Derby. War of Will was the chalk, but he got hurt in the middle of the race and finished off the board. He’s been training great, though. Spinoff made a menacing move around the turn, but couldn’t hold off By My Standards.

One of those three horses offer might be the best +2000 to +2500 bet. Spinoff won’t offer +2500 odds on Derby Day. If you like him, wager on him right now before you finish reading this article. His odds could drop into the single-digits because some professional horseplayers have already said he’s their Derby pick.

Does Long Range Toddy, Gray Magician, Country House, or Master Fencer have any shot at Derby Glory?

Yes and no. No based on what’s on paper. None of the four appears to be fast enough to win the Run for the Roses. But, this is the Kentucky Derby. Charismatic won the 1999 Kentucky Derby and paid $64.60 for $2 to win. Giacomo won the Derby in 2005 and paid $102.60 while Mine That Bird won it in 2009 and paid $103.20 for a $2 win wager.

So, no, based on past performances, Long Range Toddy, Gray Magician, Country House, and Master Fencer can’t win on the first Saturday in May. But, based on past history, sure, any one of them could!

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The 2019 Kentucky Derby is on May 4. Because the Derby allows for 20 entrants, it helps to break down our handicapping into favorites and dark horses and longshots. Check out a run down of the favorites, horses offering Kentucky Derby odds less than +2000, to win the Run for the Roses!

2019 Kentucky Derby Betting Favorites

When: Saturday, May 4 at 6:50pm ET
Where: Churchill Downs Racetrack
TV: NBC
Live Stream: NBCsports.com

2019 Kentucky Derby Betting Favorites Odds

Roadster

The Santa Anita Derby winner sure looks like a solid play, but there are some questions. Yes, he beat Game Winner in the SA Derby, but he didn’t run particularly fast, at least, not as fast as Omaha Beach, Maximum Security, and Tacitus did when they won their Derby prep races. Not only that, but the extra 1/8 of a mile could be kryptonite to this Quality Road runner. Beware the short odds.

Omaha Beach

The second choice sure looked good winning the Arkansas Derby. He also produced a fantastic work over the weekend that shows he’s ready to run his best on Saturday. Omaha Beach is a legitimate favorite that must be taken seriously.

Game Winner

The two-year-old champion couldn’t get by Omaha Beach in the Rebel Stakes. Then in the Santa Anita Derby, he couldn’t hold off Roadster. What’s even more worrisome is that he doesn’t appear to have gotten any faster as a three-year-old than he was as a two-year-old. He’d have to improve on the first Saturday in May and that’s hard for a horse to do.

Improbable

The final Bob Baffert trained horse that will enter the Kentucky Derby starting gate showed all sorts of talent after going undefeated as a two-year-old. However, this year, like Game Winner, he hasn’t improved that much. He let Long Range Toddy run him down in the other division of the Rebel Stakes before not being able to get past Omaha Beach in the Arkansas Derby. If he improves he can win, but right now, it’s hard to see that happening.

Maximum Security

The Jason Servis trained Florida Derby winner is undefeated in 4 races. Not only that, but he’s run faster than most any other horse entered in the Derby. Some believe he’s just a speedball, but he runs so effortlessly and pays such close attention to his jockey’s cues that it’s hard to see him not rating behind horses if he must. He might be a freak, which makes him a great play at +1000.

Tacitus

The Wood Memorial winner is trained by the great Bill Mott, the man who saddled the incomparable Cigar. Mott doesn’t often have a Derby runner. This horse was sired by Tapit, though, which makes him the best bred horse in the race. Not only that, he won both the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby and the Grade 2 Wood Memorial. There’s a lot to like about Tacitus.

Vekoma

He’s got a funky stride that might turn off some horseplayers. But, here’s the thing, he laid way off in the Fountain of Youth and made a winning move before having trouble in the stretch. Then, he laid right off the pace in the Blue Grass Stakes and did win. Vekoma has shown the ability to run whatever way his jockey and trainer wants him to run. That means he has flexibility heading to Churchill Downs. Flexibility is a wonderful thing to have in the Kentucky Derby.

Code of Honor

He’s a borderline favorite. Even if you think of him as a longshot, Code of Honor is hard to endorse. He ran great when winning the Fountain of Youth, but he didn’t step forward in the Florida Derby. He’ll have to improve to have any shot of hitting the board.

Previous Betting News

The Super Bowl of thoroughbred racing, the Kentucky Derby, is Saturday at Churchill Downs in Louisville. It’s the 143 rd Run for the Roses, otherwise known as the “fastest two minutes in sports.” The Kentucky Derby is the first leg of the Triple Crown of Thoroughbred Racing, and is followed by the Preakness Stakes on May 20 and the Belmont Stakes on June 10.

The 1 1/4-mile race runs on a dirt track and has a 20-horse field, the biggest you will see. Secretariat, arguably the best thoroughbred horse of all-time, still holds the Kentucky Derby record at 1:59.40, set in 1973. Here’s a look at the three betting favorites for the race, although the Kentucky Derby odds will change after Wednesday’s post position draw.

2017 Kentucky Derby Betting Favorites

Classic Empire (+400)

The Kentucky-bred colt has five wins in seven career races, including a victory at the Arkansas Derby on Apr. 15 and at the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile race in November of last year. The colt is second on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard, with 132 points, and has strong bloodlines in Pioneerof the Nile, which finished second at the 2009 Kentucky Derby. Bred by Steven and Brandi Nicholson, Classic Empire was a $475,000 buy at the 2015 Keeneland Yearling Sale for owner John C. Oxley. He usually races close to the speed. His racing style suggests the 1-1/4 miles Derby trip could be a challenge. Classic Empire has drifted in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager pools, and was at 12-1 at the end of Pool 4.

Always Dreaming (+500)

Winless in two summer juvenile starts, Always Dreaming returned to racing as a 3-year- old with an 11-1/2 length maiden victory at Tampa Bay Downs Jan. 25. With that and a March 4 Gulfstream Park allowance victory behind the horse, trainer Todd Pletcher decided to send him to the Florida Derby April 1. He won that race, which saw fellow Kentucky Derby hopeful Gunnevera finish third. Always Dreaming has little in the way of high -stakes racing experience. Always Dreaming is from the first crop of Bodemeister, runner-up to I’ll Have Another in the 2012 Kentucky Derby. Always Dreaming has generally raced on or near the speed. He galloped to the line very solidly in the 1-1/8 mile Florida Derby.

Irish War Cry (+900)

The colt put in his final work for the Kentucky Derby April 30 at Fair Hill Training Center near Elkton, Md., clocking six furlongs in 1:13 1/5 on trainer Graham Motion’s watch. The Curlin colt, winner of the April 8 Wood Memorial, worked under jockey Rajiv Maragh in company with maiden Providence Road, a full brother to Motion’s 2011 Wood Memorial winner Toby’s Corner. Isabelle de Tomaso’s New Jersey homebred won his first three races, including the Holy Bull Stakes (G2) Feb. 4 at Gulfstream Park, leading from gate to wire in defeating Gunnevera and champion juvenile Classic Empire, looking like a great Derby chance while doing so. Unfortunately, he produced a shocker in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) March 4 back at Gulfstream Park, fading badly to finish seventh, 21 lengths behind Gunnevera. Motion called the effort a “real head-scratcher” but suggested he possibly raced the colt too quickly after the Holy Bull Stakes. Irish War Cry was a 7-1 shot when Pool 3 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager closed Feb. 26 but drifted to 21-1 when Pool 4 closed.