2019 Preakness Stakes Betting Strategies.

2019 Preakness Stakes Betting Strategies

Written by on May 17, 2019

With the absence of a clear cut dominant horse in the Preakness, there are win, place and show options aplenty. With that said, there are still a few horses that merit serious consideration despite their less than optimal odds. For the first time since 1996, the Derby winner will not run for the Black Eyed Susans.

2019 Preakness Stakes Betting Strategies

Baffert’s Big Draw

Improbable will look to give trainer Bob Baffert his record 8th Preakness title. A few factors standout with Improbable. In addition to Baffert, you’d be hard pressed to find a better big game rider than Mike Smith who hops on board for the first time. Smith is well aware of the Pimlico oval and will have Improbable in a prime stalking position to cross the wire first. It will be hard to leave Improbable off of exotic tickets as well. Despite Baffert’s insistence that the horse is an undeserving morning line favorite, his success and the success of Smith speaks for itself. Alwaysmining is a horse that is also a serious win candidate. Now, there are some knocks on the son of Stay Thirsty, he is trying graded stakes company for the first time. That’s the only minus, he comes in on a six-race win streak and has won rather convincingly, showing different running styles. In his last race, he didn’t necessarily need the lead. His Beyer Speed figures (87-96-92 in last three) certainly fit with this group. Had Maximum Security or Code of Honor been in Baltimore, his chances and odds would be diminished. However, given this group and his momentum and success, he rates a legitimate shot. Anothertwistafate is a horse that has registered 94 and 95 Beyers in each of his last two starts. The one knock is that the horse has logged some frequent flier miles, shipping back and forth to his Northern California base twice but he is a horse fresh and ready to go having skipped the Derby. Jose Ortiz is as capable a pilot as there is in the game and Blaine Wright’s horse should be in the mix at every call.

Threat at Top

Why not to like War of Will on top: War of Will figures to garner a great deal of betting attention heading into the race. A few reasons not to invest in Mark Casse’s son of War Front. Firstly and most importantly, if not for a heroic act of freakish athleticism by his jockey Tyler Gaffalione, War of Will had no business even crossing the Derby wire. While his connections insist he exited the race relatively unscathed, that fact remains to be seen. Plus, exiting from the 1 hole, the break will be incredibly critical for Gaffalione. Bourbon War, who breaks from the 2 slots is not a speed horse and won’t be rushed from the gate but the potential does exist for Warrior’s Charge in the 3 holes to burst out of the gate and rush to the lead, potentially shuffling back War of Will. In looking at past Preakness Stakes, late closers do not necessarily fare well on Old Hilltop. To that end, horses that get relatively clean trips and remain on or close to the lead, providing the fractions are sensible are horses to invest in. Horses such as Laughing Fox and Win Win Win who are pace dependent and reliant on hot early fractions may not be worth a shot.