The trilogy is finally here as Dustin Poirier and Conor McGregor meet for a third time to settle the tie in UFC 264. This will also be the first time since March of last year that Las Vegas has a live crowd for a UFC event. Let’s have a closer look at the upcoming fight so you can get all set to place your bets against their UFC odds.
MMA Betting Analysis for Dustin Poirier vs. Conor McGregor 3
Main Event Breakdown
- Date: Sat, Jul 10, 9:00 PM
- Venue: T-Mobile Arena
- Watch on: PPV
Poirier is returning to the octagon after taking care of McGregor back in January of this year by a second-round TKO. That victory put him currently on a two-fight winning streak and looking in great shape with momentum.
Looking at his fighting resume, it shows that he has 13 wins by knockout, seven by submission, and seven by decision. He has also put together 12 first-round finishes when combining his knockouts and submissions.
He strikes with an accuracy of 50 percent and has a grappling accuracy of 36 percent. He delivers 5.59 significant strikes a minute and takes on 4.17.
Poirier defends against takedowns at 61 percent and defends against significant strikes at 54 percent. He also has been able to average 1.47 takedowns and 1.30 submissions in every 15 minutes of action.
Conor “Notorious” McGregor (22-5-0)
McGregor needs to get back on track and solidify his stance in the lightweight division as a top fighter. His previous battle had a first-round TKO victory against Donald Cerrone back in January of 2020.
Looking at his fighting resume, it shows that he has 19 wins by knockout, one by submission, and two by decision. He also has put together 14 first-round knockout finishes.
He strikes with an accuracy of 49 percent and has a grappling accuracy of 55 percent. He delivers 5.32 significant strikes a minute while taking on 4.54.
McGregor defends against takedowns at 67 percent and defends against significant strikes at 54 percent. He also does not land many takedowns in each fight, at 0.70 per 15 minutes of action.
Odds for Main Event
The market is viewing this battle to be a coin flip for a victory. MyBookie has the odds currently sitting at:
*odds are subject to changes
Main Event Pick
The first matchup between these two in 2014 was an explosive outing that showed McGregor was the better fighter. Poirier could not defend against McGregor’s strikes and thus lost in the first round.
But in 2020, both fighters were in different stages of their careers, with Poirier arguably going through one of the best stretches in the lightweight division. Poirier returned the favor with a second-round TKO and tied the series between them.
Now for a third battle, you should expect a more focused McGregor. However, Poirier has been training immediately following his victory against McGregor as he looks to remain on top.
Poirier led a balanced attack early that eventually ended in a dominant fashion. Look for Poirier to repeat here, but this time by decision.
Pick: Poirier wins by decision at -120