This Saturday, from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada, two explosive lightweight contenders will headline the bill for UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moises. Let’s take a closer look at both fighters so you can get ready to make your bets against their UFC odds.
MMA Betting Analysis for Makhachev vs. Moises
Islam Makhachev, who is 9th in the UFC lightweight rankings, will face No. 14-ranked Thiago Moises in the main event of the stacked card.
The clash of ranked prospects closes the curtain on the main UFC fight card that will take place at 10 PM ET from the previously stated Apex facility.
Makhachev is riding off of a ton of momentum, rattling off seven straight victories behind his intense and strong grappling style that is reminiscent of one of the best of all-time and his coach, Khabib Nurmagomedov.
Nurmagomedov famously went undefeated in his MMA career and in the UFC, something Makhachev will try to nearly replicate, as he holds a 19-1 career record.
Makhachev will have his work cut out for him with this matchup versus Thiago Moses, who has also established a winning streak with three consecutive victories.
He has now cracked the ranked competition in this absolutely loaded UFC lightweight division that just witnessed a massive card with top contender Dustin Poirier beating superstar Conor McGregor by TKO at the end of the first round due to a broken tibia for McGregor.
Odds and News holds Makhachev as the -664 favorite in Las Vegas due to his resume so far. Thiago Moses is now listed as a +469 underdog in this anticipated matchup.
The preliminary card will start at 7 PM ET, with the Main Card directly following it at 10. The television broadcast can be seen on both ESPN and its ESPN+ division.
Preview of the Night
Moses and Makhachev will close out the night on what should be a very solid UFC card. Makhachev and Moses were not originally intended to be the main card for this UFC Fight Night slot, but Max Holloway was forced to withdraw from his fight against Yair Rodriguez.
This card also features some exciting women’s bantamweight returns and a return from UFC long-stay Jeremy Stephens, who will be bumping up to lightweight.
Miesha Tate will emerge from a nearly five-year absence in the co-main event, where she’ll meet Marion Reneau.
Miesha Tate has not appeared in the octagon since her UFC 205 loss to Raquel Pennington in 2016. Before that, she had just lost her belt to the now clear women’s best of all time, Amanda Nunes.
Her return to the UFC seems to come from her new motivation in the mixed martial arts scene after she took over as a Vice President for the ONE Championship.
This will be no easy return for Tate, as it is difficult for any fighter to take a five-year hiatus and return back in top form, but her matchup against Marion Reneau is of two women past their fighting prime.
Renau is now 44 and has gone winless in her last four fights.
There is truly no reason for her to still be in the UFC production and in the sport. Her skills have depleted with age, as you would expect in this sport, and she has taken some serious and unnecessary damage in the process of her four-fight losing streak.
With both fighters being long past their primes, MyBookie holds Miesha Tate as the favorite due to her storied past at -155. Renau holds the positive odds of +125.
The other signature bouts on this main card will come from the men’s lightweight division and the men’s middleweight division.
Jeremy Stephens, a long-time featherweight contender, will be moving up to lightweight to take on Mateusz Gamrot.
Stephens’ had a fight scheduled earlier this year, but it was canceled after his opponent Drakkar Klose suffered an injury after an altercation between him and Stephens.
The altercation occurred during the ceremonial weigh-ins and subsequent face-off prior to their fight.
Stephens is searching for a win in order to get back on track after a rough few years in his career in which he has lost four in a row and suffered a no contest.
On the other hand, Gamrot will be looking to add what would be the biggest win of his career if he were to finish or defeat Stephens. Gamrot is 18-1 in his pro MMA career and will be looking for his second UFC win in this contest after he secured his first win in April of this year.
We will also see a Rodolfo Vieira and Dustin Stolzfus middleweight matchup that could shake up the bottom part of the middleweight rankings. The world champion jiu-jitsu fighter Rodolfo Vieira is out to make a comeback after he was amazingly submitted for his first-ever loss in his MMA career.
A win from Dustin Stolzfus would be huge for his career, given the reputation and pedigree of Rodolfo Vieira.
Makhachev vs Moises
There is no need to look at numbers and statistics between Makhachev and Moises, as there is a clear advantage towards the corner of Makhachev. The only loss Makhachev has suffered in his career was off a shocking fluke knockout that he suffered in his second UFC bout.
He is starting to truly emulate his coach’s abilities, getting ready to take the reins and rise up to be the next Khabib Nurmagomedov. He has recorded 11 finishes in his career, with three knockouts and eight submission finishes.
While Thiago Moises is strong from the ground, Makhachev will present too many avenues to victory with the vast tools that he has at his disposal.
These fighters are also the exact opposite when it comes to being cautious on the part of Makhachev and aggressive on the part of Moises.
Makhachev is a fairly cautious fighter and does not absorb too many punches or kicks to any part of his body. Like his mentor, if he gets his hands on you, you are most likely going to the ground and going to stay there for a long stretch of time.
Moises is aggressive once he gets to the ground but not in getting there. He only averages about 1.15 takedowns per 15 minutes, but once he gets to the ground, he aggressively searches for submissions, specifically leg locks and heel submissions.
Pick: Makhachev ML (-620) by Submission
Miesha Tate vs Marion Renau
This one should really not be an exciting fight, and I do not expect there to be much action between these two fighters who are long out of their best shape and fighting molds.
This is a matchup between two different-styled fighters when looking at the grappling of Miesha Tate versus the stand and swing style of Renau.
With both of these fighters being way out of the realm of UFC belt contention, I do not see any reason that Tate, the more experienced and advanced fighter in her time, should lose this fight.
Pick: Tate ML (-155) by Decision
Jeremy Stephens vs Mateusz Gamrot
A long-standing veteran of the octagon in the UFC, Stephens made his UFC debut at UFC 71, making him one of the longest-standing UFC fighters in history.
UFC 71 was all the way back in 2007, and this fight will make his 34th appearance in the UFC. He carries a 28-18 MMA record with one NC, and 21 of his wins have been stoppages with 19 KOs and two submissions.
He is obviously much more of a brawler type when you look at his tendencies and his type of finishes. He is also averaging 3.18 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.06 of them.
Gamrot lost his UFC debut but bounced back strong to secure his first victory in the octagon under the big lights earlier this year.
In his total two UFC bouts, Gamrot has secured two performance bonuses, one in each, including a fight of the night and performance of the night.
The southpaw fighter is very well-rounded from both aspects of the octagon. His ground game is strong, and he can handle his own on the feet. He has averaged 4.26 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 2.20, and he averages 4.91 takedowns per 15 minutes as well in the UFC.
With his career taking a downturn in recent years, Stephens will have a hard time making up the gap vs Gamrot, and he will hold the disadvantage in this one.
Pick: Gamrot ML (-210)
Rodolfo Vieira vs Dustin Stolzfus
Both of these fighters are coming off of recent stunning losses that have shaken up their ascension in the middleweight division.
Vieira is a gigantic-looking middleweight that uses that advantage heavily on the ground. Prior to his first loss. He was 7-0 with seven finishes, one by knockout and six by submission.
Stolzfus had a 10 fight winning streak before his last loss to Kyle Daukus by unanimous decision. Dustin earned a UFC contract from his stunning first-round knockout win in Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series last year.
He is an aggressive and hard-working fighter who is always moving forward, making a fast-paced and aggressive fight.
While Rodolfo is favored, I think the energy and intensity of Stolzfus may prove too much for the bigger Vieira.
Pick: Stoltzfus ML (+185)